Tuesdays with Tom: The New College Football Playoff
Assessing how the expanded College Football Playoff compares to previous iterations; plus thoughts on Squid Game, The Odyssey and headphone assailants
It’s a new year and a new age for college football. A few weeks ago, we got our first taste of the expanded College Football Playoff. Last year, I wrote about the changing paradigm of this sport’s conferences. This is very much connected to its new postseason structure. I’ve been vocal about my skepticism towards the 12-team bracket. However, I want to be fair about it. I’m still rooting for the best product possible with college football. I’ve compared what we’ve seen so far to the results of past college postseasons. Going into this, I hypothesized that while more teams are involved in the national championship race, the results would be very similar to previous iterations. So far, am I correct? Or do I already need to eat crow?
College Football Playoff Participants
From 2014 to 2023, the four team playoff produced 15 different teams across 10 years of playoff games. It was an era dominated by the SEC and Big Ten. The conferences combined for 53% of participating teams and captured 80% of the championships. The only year the SEC didn’t play in the title game was last year’s Michigan-Washington game. However, there were two years that we saw an all-SEC title game (Alabama & Georgia played twice in 2018 and 2021). How does this compare to the first 12-team playoff group? You’ll notice a common thread between this group and the four-team playoff.
A few caveats here. Most of these conferences are bigger today. The Pac-12 is currently a two-team non-league and Notre Dame is the only independent that matters. Nevertheless, this is still a playoff bracket that shows an overwhelming favor towards SEC and Big Ten teams. There are six first-time playoff teams this year. Naturally, this will be more common with eight additional teams making it each year. However, most of the participants are former national champions. SMU, Arizona State, Indiana and Boise State were the only first-time playoff teams with no national titles in their past.
CFP First Round
The opening frame of this 12-team playoff doubled as the sport’s biggest experiment to date. With the top four conference champions on a bye week, the remaining eight teams squared off in an opening round. The newest element was on-campus home games in December for the higher ranked seeds. This is the most exciting wrinkle of the new playoff. There were some intriguing theoretical match-ups. Only 200 miles apart, Indiana took its ultimate Cinderella story into South Bend against one of college football’s original powers. Ohio State vs. Tennessee is the exact showdown this expanded playoff was designed for. They’re two legacy football brands, who rarely get to play and each represented the powerhouse conferences of their era. With no tangible connections and a lopsided talent gap, the SMU-Penn State match-up wasn’t too sexy. The all-orange pairing of Clemson and Texas had some broad appeal, too.
Unfortunately, the hype for this weekend greatly exceeded the results. Indiana and SMU quickly fueled the skeptics who challenged their résumés with resounding blowout losses. Indiana trailed by four touchdowns before they patched up the final with two garbage time touchdowns. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings threw the Mustangs out of the game before halftime with two pick-sixes. While Clemson scored first and briefly made it a game, Texas ultimately won by two touchdowns as expected. And the most anticipated game of the day ended up being the worst of them all. Ohio State jumped to a 21-0 lead and never let go, winning 42-17. It quickly silenced SEC blowhards who relished in hypothetical scenarios involving non-playoff teams. In the second half of every game, there were only 87 seconds where the score was within seven points. Frankly, it was a huge bummer to watch.
CFP First Round in a Nutshell: This was a harrowing start for playoff expansion advocates. All the favorites won with little resistance and none of the games were competitive or fun.
CFP Quarterfinals
Following the first round, eight teams played in four neutral site bowl games to start a new calendar year. As conference champions, Oregon, Georgia, Boise State and Arizona State received extra time off to prepare for their opponents. Once again, Penn State entered as a heavy favorite against Boise State. Group of Five schools like Boise State were among the most vocal supporters of playoff expansions. “Why not us!” they said after years of being left out. Boise State remains the gold standard of the Cinderella narrative in college football. There was no better opportunity for them to make a statement than the same bowl where they shocked the world with trick plays and miracles in a win against Oklahoma in 2007.
History did not repeat itself for the Broncos on New Year’s Eve. Penn State contained Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty to 104 rushing yards and no scores. The Nittany Lions overwhelmed the Broncos offense for the majority of the game. Penn State’s cruise through the semifinals highlighted the stupidity of guaranteeing four conference champions with bye week berths into this quarterfinal round. If they’d seeded this bracket by ranking, Penn State would have played the winner of a hypothetical Notre Dame and Arizona State match-up. Instead, they beat up on SMU and Boise State, who barely challenged them.
There was one underdog program that responded to the dare to compete in this playoff. In their first year as a Big 12 team, Arizona State went from preseason doormat to conference champions with a 11-2 record. That earned them a bye week despite being the 12th ranked team in the playoff bracket. For the second straight game, Texas entered as a two-touchdown favorite to win. But this time, the Longhorns lollygagged their way through the game and it came back to haunt them. Texas shockingly squandered a 16-point fourth quarter lead with 5:24 on the clock, through a series of football follies and trickery by Arizona State’s do-it-all running back Cam Skattebo. Longhorns kicker Bert Auburn missed two field goals that could have ended it in regulation. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers fired off two touchdowns to ice the game in double overtime. Finally, a true classic in the 12-team playoff. The Sun Devils nearly pulled off the upset of the year.
Elsewhere, the first rematch of this CFP pitted the top-ranked Oregon Ducks against Ohio State. The Ducks were the lone undefeated team in the field and won the Big Ten in their first season in the conference. They won a tough battle against the Buckeyes 32-31 at home during the regular season. We even ended up with a traditional legacy Pac-12 vs. Big Ten match-up in the Rose Bowl. Surely, this game would provide bombastic spectacles and thrills, right? NOPE. Ryan Day’s revenge tour continued to impress in a thorough dismantling of the Ducks. It was 34-0 Ohio State before the second quarter ended. This was an unexpected blood bath, but it showed how dangerous Ohio State can be at their best.
Finally, the Notre Dame-Georgia game was delayed by one day due to a terrorist attack in New Orleans. This was a competitive one until a series of notable Georgia mistakes that Notre Dame capitalized on. After kicking a field goal to make it 6-3, Notre Dame’s RJ Oben forced a sack fumble on Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockon. That immediately led to a 13-yard passing touchdown from Irish quarterback Riley Leonard to Beaux Collins. At the top of the second half, Irish receiver Jayden Harrison took a kick-off 98 yards for a touchdown. That effectively ended the game, with the Fighting Irish winning 23-10.
CFP Quarterfinals in a Nutshell: Texas and Arizona State notched the first 12-team playoff classic. The rest of the games were largely anti-climactic, despite the surprising thrashing from Ohio State.
CFP Semifinals & National Championships
The semifinals are this Thursday and Friday. We have a final four playoff bracket in some big bowl locations. While the initial rounds of this 12-team playoff are new, one thing is consistent. Most of these games are not competitive. Here’s a quick comparison of the average margin of victory from the 4-team playoff to this year’s first two rounds with 12 teams.
This is precisely what many 12-team playoff critics feared. With the addition of eight more teams, the quality of team match-ups is diluted. Blowouts were deceptively common in the 4-team playoff era. With the exception of the 2023 playoff last year, every playoff delivered averages well above double-digit margins of victory in their three games. In some years, it was as high as 29.0 on average. Alabama, Clemson and Georgia won seven of the ten 4-team playoffs. Parity was non-existent. If competitive parity was a goal of expanding the playoff field, that has not happened. So far, we’re seeing even more lopsided results and a final four once again made up of successful legacy programs. By the way, it’s also gotten worse since we abandoned the BCS.
I’ll lay my cards on the table. The demands to expand the playoff weren’t about competitive parity. The main objective was conference representation and TV network pay-outs. It provides an answer for incessant hypotheticals about the wide range of college football contenders. Whether that’s the right answer is up for debate. In reality, the 12-team playoff only ensures that everyone’s pockets are neatly lined up en route to the inevitable conclusion. The winning team can earn up to $20 million for their conference if they go all the way. Sadly, that is what this is all about.
This doesn’t mean that there will never be upsets in the future. But it’s difficult to see an underdog winning four playoff rounds and a national title. This brings us to the national championship. By the time this game kicks off on January 20, it will be 43 days since the final CFP rankings were released. That’s eight days longer than the NFL’s playoff run to the Super Bowl. I know what you’re thinking. Isn’t all this still better than two lone teams playing for the championship? There is no denying that the 4-team and 12-team playoff created more opportunities for new champions.
But guess what? Postseason expansion has actually resulted in fewer new champions. Since 1900, 36 out of 135 eligible Division-I teams have claimed national championships. However, since the BCS began in 1998, only 15 teams have won titles in this sport. It’s produced zero net new national champions to boot. All of the post BCS-era champions were previous title teams. The last time a non-traditional powerhouse claimed a title win was in 1990 (a polling split between Georgia Tech and Colorado). So even though there are now 12 teams with a chance to win it all, history suggests that it will be the same handful of elite teams that end up on top.
It’s a bit depressing to conclude that only 11% of college football teams have realistic title dreams. But facts are facts. Penn State, Notre Game, Texas and Ohio State are part of college football’s oligarchy with national championships already. And most importantly, they all have generous financial resources to remain elite consistently. Ohio State spent $20 million in NIL money on this rebooted team. Notre Dame had a similar budget for their squad. Penn State is a top-25 NIL program. Texas accesses $700-million in donor money for their athletic programs. Spending money doesn’t guarantee on-field success, but it absolutely makes a difference.
By the end of this week, we’ll know which of these four teams will take the next step towards the ultimate goal. Texas gets a mini hometown advantage in the Cotton Bowl, only 195 miles from Austin. They’ll need every edge they can get against the red-hot Buckeyes. Quinn Ewers famously transferred from Ohio State to Texas as a freshman. It would be poetic for Ohio State to end his Texas career. Penn State’s rosy path to a title appearance gets a lot thornier with Notre Dame up next. I believe they have a shot against the Fighting Irish, but they’re catching them at a bad time. Notre Dame is growing more confident in their approach with every round. Both teams are looking for their first national title since the 1980s.
For those who point out that all the top four seeds lost in the quarterfinals, consider this. Boise State and Arizona State were 9th and 12th in the CFP rankings. They were both double digit underdogs. Neither was a real top-four team this season. Notre Dame’s win over Georgia was deserving, but they did catch a depleted Georgia team playing with a back-up quarterback. Oregon has no excuses, though it’s worth noting that Ohio State is far better than a typical 8th seed will be in the future. Seeding is this bracket’s biggest issue today and it needs to be addressed immediately.
Prediction: Ohio State’s revitalized offense will continue its march to the title game. Notre Dame gets the job done against Penn State and the Buckeyes take home their first national title since 2014.
Tom’s College Football Playoff Cliff Notes
New Format, Same Results
We’ve come a long way from letting a group of journalists decide who is the champion like we did prior to 1998. However, this feels a lot like the old systems. Most of the participating teams are from the SEC and Big Ten. Nearly all the early round match-ups were uncompetitive blowouts. In the end, it’s another group of blue-blood programs left standing. It’s a one year sample size, but this isn’t the exciting chaos we were promised it would be. If you still endorse this expansion, be honest with yourself. Is it actually better? Or is it just more of the same?
The Playoff Path is More Inclusive, But Harder
In the past, a single loss could have derailed your championship hopes. The consolation prize was playing in a major game like the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl. You could end on a high note. Now those historic bowls are just stepping stones to more playoff games and eventually the national title game. A playoff team needs to win three or four increasingly difficult games to win it all. That’s a much bigger task than just playing a single winner-take-all game.
The Regular Season Means Less
The 12-week regular season used to be an unofficial season-long single elimination tournament to the national championship game. Things have changed. You can lose a few times and be pretty safe (Tennessee). You can endure a historic upset loss as long as your schedule is a joke (Notre Dame). You can lose to your biggest rival in the last week, miss out on your conference title game and be a near lock (Ohio State). You can even lose in your conference title game and still make it (Penn State, Texas, SMU). All this has dramatically lowered the stakes of these regular season shockers.
The Debate Between Team Record vs. Strength of Schedule is Not Going Away
What should count the most? A strong record regardless of your opponents? Or a competitive nine-to-ten win season in an allegedly tougher conference? This will be the core dilemma every year of this 12-team playoff. My take? If we're only going to prioritize teams that have more NFL-caliber talent, what’s the point of playing the games? At some point, you need to win. On the other hand, no one wants uncompetitive playoff games. It’s a real Sophie’s Choice that will never be perfectly addressed.
We Don’t Need More Teams
You know what’s not the solution? Adding more teams. I’m not naive. I think they added four too many yet I know they won’t go backwards. But if you’re left out, too bad. I’m not here for any debates about 12th place. Spare me with the requests to expand further. It won’t make a difference.
There Aren’t 12 Teams Worthy
We have ample evidence that shows how far the gap is between the cream of the crop and everyone else. It was on full display in this playoff and it’s been the case for far longer than that. This sport hasn’t produced an underdog national champion in 35 years. College football has always favored the historical elites and there’s little reason to think that will change going forward.
A Few Tweaks Wouldn’t Hurt
Conference champions shouldn’t get an automatic bye. They can be included, but that’s it. They should rank them 1-12 and seed it that way. Furthermore, why don’t the first four seeds get a home game? They should be rewarded with that instead of being forced into a neutral site game that takes away a deserving hometown advantage. Save the bowl sites for the semifinals. Finally, please play the championship game on a Saturday instead of late on Monday night.
This Sport is for Diehards Only
Most of these changes were made to draw in more casual fan viewership. I don’t see how this is more appealing for someone on the fence. I know very few people who love a college football team that didn’t attend the school or have some intense personal connection to their location or brand. None of that changes by simply expanding to include more playoff teams, especially if the competitive parity is getting worse and not better.
Who Will Attend These Games?
Imagine this scenario. You’re a hardcore fan of a CFP team. If you want to attend these postseason games, you may have to consider the following schedule.
A neutral site conference championship game on the first weekend of December with one week’s notice to attend
An on-campus first round playoff game two weeks later that could be all over the country
A neutral site Quarterfinals match-up on New Year’s Eve/New Year’s Day in a major bowl setting
A neutral site Semifinals match-up on a January Thursday or Friday in a different major bowl setting
A neutral site National Championship match on a late January Monday night in the same rotating pool of major bowl game cities.
With a projected $8,000 cost (not including transportation, food or drinks) to do all this, this is an enormous financial and logistical hurdle for fans. Fans who have waited a lifetime to see their team in the national title race are in a tough spot. None of these will be an easy ticket or trip and you won’t have much time to decide if you can go. Basically, you have to be well off and have unlimited free time to be able to consider most of these games.
College Football is No Different from The Pros
If you like five month football seasons that extend late into winter, where athletes make lots of money to play a game, and coaches and players that change teams on a whim, I’ve got great news for you. There’s another football league that does this: the National Football League! And the best guys from this sport eventually hop right over there and play. I’m being glib, but there’s no denying it anymore. College football is exactly like the NFL now. I’m not sure that is a good thing.
Yes, I Will Still Watch It All
I’m a football junkie. They’ve got me for life. Don’t conflate my consumption for approval. I hope that I’m wrong about all this. I hope 10 years from now, we are talking about a slew of new college football champions. I hope we have fond memories from watching all these new playoff games. That would make all this transparent push for profits worth it for the fans who care. I’ll still hold out hope that a team like Mizzou can defy the odds and make this expanded playoff. But that’s probably the ceiling for my team and many others. Just remember this. The only thing this new playoff guarantees is more football games and more checks, not new results.
Tom’s Thoughts of the Week
Welcome back to Tuesdays with Tom! I started this in 2018. It’s now 2025. Wow!
We kicked off season five of Friday Night Beers last Friday. This season’s opening beer is Lü from Solemn Oath Brewing. We talked about some of our own oaths, the best Lous in history and performed some wild talk show host impressions. After that, we reviewed Rolling Rock, which comes out this Friday. I haven’t had one in several years and let’s just say I’m glad I retired from that beer. We talked about some other things we’ve given up doing, corporations ruining products and some pop culture relics. It’s going to be a great season. Please subscribe, rate and review our podcast here and follow our Instagram page for relevant updates!
Netflix struck gold with Squid Game in 2021. The South Korean drama about a deadly underground contest was a cultural phenomenon that became the most watched Netflix original ever almost immediately. But unless the Squid Game reality competition spinoff version amused you, it’s been a cultural eternity since we had new Squid Game episodes. Netflix never thought Squid Game would be a popular show, let alone one that would demand a second season. The show’s creator, Hwang Dong-hyuk, didn’t mince words when asked if this continuation was financially motivated. But Squid Game did leave viewers on the edge of their seat with that cliffhanger ending. Both Netflix and Hwang Dong-hyuk had plenty of reasons to finish out this story. You probably need to watch the “previously on” recap before you see Squid Game 2, but it delivers a solid follow-up to the original season. Squid Game’s fascinatingly morbid critique of income inequality and class presents viewers with riveting moral quandaries. Through the life-or-death stakes of South Korean children’s games, it forces its characters to show their true nature and posits that many of us would do horrible things to survive. I enjoyed many of the new characters in the games this season. The good news is that Squid Game fans won’t have to wait another three years to see the ending. The third season is already done and will be out on Netflix some time in 2025. I’m thrilled I don’t have to compete in this contest, but I’ll be around for “one more game” until this thing ends.
Christopher Nolan’s next film is an adaptation of The Odyssey, the legendary Greek epic written by Homer. This is my favorite story in Greek mythology. The Odyssey is about the 10-year journey of Odysseus returning home from the Trojan War after the events of The Iliad (another Homer classic). The listed cast includes Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Zendaya, Lupita Nyong’o, Robert Pattinson and Charlize Theron. We don’t know their roles yet and I’m sure there are other actors making secret cameos. I’m unbelievably delighted. The Odyssey is an amazing tale, filled with compelling characters and crazy twists. Apparently, Nolan is inventing new IMAX technology to film this movie. With his wizardry, I bet he’s trying to find a way to use real monsters from ancient Greek myth lore. Let’s just say July 17, 2026, can’t come soon enough.
Finally, it’s time for another analysis of airline travel! As if this experience wasn’t problematic enough already, there’s yet another trend that is plaguing American travelers. Have you ever seen someone take a full phone call with their phone on speaker in public? I have, and many other Americans are seeing this bizarre thing in the wild more regularly. One traveler tried to confront a man arguing with his wife and was told it “wasn’t bothersome” by the culprit. “I will see it probably every single flight” said one flight attendant in the Wall Street Journal story I linked. It appears that silent shame nor verbal warnings from the airlines themselves are enough to stop this. I don’t think this is limited to the airport or planes. I see it on trains, in coffee shops and other public settings. I even see people watching videos at full blast right next to their friends, spouses and family on a couch. It blows my mind that even when these offenders are confronted, they have no remorse. It’s like saying “there is nothing that will prevent me from mindless phone consumption.” How can this be acceptable? We all need to normalize confronting these types of people. It’s very simple. WEAR HEADPHONES. I don’t want to be part of your chaotic approach to life.