Tuesdays with Tom: Oscar Gold
It’s Oscar season once again. An annual awards show filled with pageantry, celebrities and a bunch of elitist Hollywood personas competing for recognition and attention. With an increasingly shallow mainstream culture and declining TV ratings, the Academy has tried to spice things up this year by eliminating some historical elements of the show and broaden the appeal of the nominated films. With their concerted efforts at adding diversity to the voting body, this year seems like a breakthrough for that. I love movies and I did this last year, but there is some debate what a Best Picture trophy even signifies anymore. Time will tell on that front but for now, it is a prestigious honor and it gives people who do care an opportunity to talk about some of the best films of the past year. I’m focusing my preview on the major awards and will pepper in some of my personal favorite performances and movies along the way. Let’s hit it!
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"
Adam Driver, "BlackKKlansman"
Sam Elliott, "A Star Is Born"
Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me"
Sam Rockwell, "Vice"
THE SKINNY: The last two winners of this award were Mahershala Ali for Moonlight and Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards in Ebbing, Missouri. Given that Rockwell just won and he’s ironically playing a distant third or fourth fiddle to Dick Cheney in Vice, he seems like the biggest long shot of the group. Driver gave a pretty convincing turn in BlackKKlansman but he’s not considered a strong contender. That leaves Ali and two longtime actors and first time nominees in Elliot and Grant.
Ali won the 2016 award pretty easily and it’s fair to wonder why he’s even considered a supporting actor in Green Book. He has nearly equal screen time as Viggo Mortensen’s character so that gives him an advantage here. He also has an implicit advantage starring on HBO’s True Detective meaning he is top of mind for the industry. Lastly, Ali’s great in Green Book. Elliot has far less screen time in A Star is Born, but he makes his time count and he pretty much got nominated for one scene in the movie. His presence here gives a potential “It’s Time” vibe to me. Same with Grant but I can’t comment on his movie. This is Ali’s category to lose.
WHO WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali
WHO SHOULD WIN: Mahershala Ali
TOM’S ALTERNATE CHOICE: Chris Hemsworth, Avengers: Infinity War. Without spoiling the entire movie, there’s no question that Thor’s character journey is the most satisfying. If you include his time in Thor: Ragnarok, they wisely re-worked his character to lean into his comedic gifts and absurdly good looks. This is a film with more movie stars as supporting players than perhaps any other in history and I’d challenge anyone who’s seen it to debate someone other than Thor as the MVP of the movie. He’s hilarious, charming and vitally important to the cause. His dramatic climax at the end of the movie made me stand up and cheer in the theater. Hey, it would never actually happen, but I’m giving him a fake Oscar.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "Vice"
Marina de Tavira, "Roma"
Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Emma Stone, "The Favourite"
Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite"
THE SKINNY: This is one of the stronger categories of the year. Amy Adams is an Oscars staple. This is her sixth nomination and she delivers once again as Lynne Cheney. Roma’s Marina de Tavira was a surprising inclusion, but she isn’t undeserving either. I mention those two first because I think they are far behind the remaining three women. I haven’t seen If Beale Street Could Talk, but King was winning nearly every awards show trophy (including the Golden Globe) until the SAG Awards halted that run.
The Favourite was surprisingly funny and very entertaining historically-based fare. The levels of acting going on between Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone are bonkers. Particularly Stone. Her character’s entire life’s mission is driven by her talent for world class acting. Let’s just say she’s willing to do ANYTHING to rise to power. I think she deserves to win for her work in The Favourite. In a fitting twist, Weisz won at the BAFTAs for Best Supporting Actress, inching her way back into the conversation. It’s not a huge surprise the British Oscars would vote for one of their own (in an extremely British film no less). Both women are stellar in their battle for Queen Anne’s attention. But the voting trends are in this King’s favor.
WHO WILL WIN: Regina King
WHO SHOULD WIN: Emma Stone
TOM’S ALTERNATE CHOICE: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place. My drama teacher in middle school once told me that real acting is between the lines. But what if you don’t have any lines at all? That’s Emily Blunt’s challenge in A Quiet Place: a movie devoid of nearly any dialogue for its entire 90 minute runtime. In this world, an invasion of alien monsters devour the planet but can only be effective when they hear sounds. Her family is surviving through diligent silence and yet you can still see her simmering resilience through actions alone. Did I mention her character is pregnant? Imagine trying to be silent in childbirth!
Best Actor
Christian Bale, "Vice"
Bradley Cooper, "A Star Is Born"
Willem Dafoe, "At Eternity's Gate"
Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Viggo Mortensen, "Green Book"
THE SKINNY: Early on it was looking like Bradley Cooper had this all locked up. He’s been nominated for four Oscars and his turn in A Star is Born is undeniably impressive. He learned how to sing and play guitar and completely altered his voice. It’s the kind of stuff the Academy loves. Unfortunately for him, two other actors gave powerhouse performances as real-life people. I’m talking about Rami Malek and Christian Bale. With respect to Dafoe and Mortensen (Aragorn forever bro), this is a two-horse race between their killer karaoke renditions of Freddie Mercury and Dick Cheney. I mean that somewhat as a compliment.
In the case of Malek, it’s impossible to ask any actor to match the vocal range of the Queen lead singer (his singing lines are dubbed) but for everything else, he really owned the part. He’s pretty much the only redeeming quality about an otherwise mediocre movie. I’d say the same thing for Bale as Cheney. His performance is more disturbing in its accuracy than Malek’s, partly because Mercury is far more beloved than Cheney ever was by even his fondest admirers. Malek’s been gaining momentum lately with some crucial wins at the SAG Awards and BAFTAs. It’s difficult to separate your personal opinions of the men when choosing who to honor most. Bale’s got history on his side (four Oscar nominations) and his trademark physical transformation is typically what the acting community loves. On the other hand, Malek gets to play a musical icon in a crowd-pleasing film. Do voters hold his lip syncing against him? It’s going to be a close call between Malek and Bale. It’s too bad because I actually think Cooper’s work was more original and deserving.
WHO WILL WIN: Christian Bale
WHO SHOULD WIN: Bradley Cooper
TOM’S ALTERNATE CHOICE: Lakeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You. At the mere age of 27, Stanfield’s already been in a Martin Luther King biopic, played Snoop Dogg, co-starred in the Emmy-award winning TV show Atlanta AND had a great showing in the Oscar-nominated cultural phenomenon Get Out. He’s been a stellar supporting player but in Sorry to Bother You, he finally gets to be the center of attention. His acting and comedic style is so understated, it’s hard to telling that he’s really acting. But that’s a testament to his talent. I think he’s fantastic and this movie is extremely unique and utterly insane. Keep an eye out for this guy in the future.
Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, "Roma"
Glenn Close, "The Wife"
Lady Gaga, "A Star Is Born"
Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"
Melissa McCarthy, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
THE SKINNY: If you had told me that the person who wrote “Poker Face” would one day be nominated for an Oscar, I never would have believed it. But fast forward ten years and I did believe how good Lady Gaga was in A Star is Born. Like her co-star, she was an early frontrunner but things have since changed. That’s no typo on your screen. Melissa McCarthy is actually nominated for Best Actress. She’s also nominated for Worst Actress at the Razzies for The Happytime Murders. A rare honor! Rounding out the group are the main character in Roma, a longtime British actress in Colman and the incomparable Glenn Close.
Gaga’s movie is clearly the most viewed of any in this category, but it’s October release date is beginning to work against them. Another concern against Gaga’s case is that only actors vote for the acting categories at these awards. They might think it’s too soon for her to be recognized and she’s technically an outsider being primarily a singer. To be fair, it’s not exactly a reach for her to play a down-on-her-luck musician with ugly duckling syndrome who overcomes the odds to become a popstar. Just saying! Back to the award. Glenn Close has become the overwhelming favorite. Not many people have seen The Wife (guilty) and many never will. But she’s never won an Oscar and she’s had a great career. Cue the “It’s Time” argument. Her speech at the Golden Globes was moving and turned the tides for her to make a run. After all, people only care about the speeches at these things. She will give a great one I’m sure.
WHO WILL WIN: Glenn Close
WHO SHOULD WIN: Lady Gaga
TOM’S ALTERNATE CHOICE: Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians. I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I loved Crazy Rich Asians. I watched it on an airplane with my brother Matt through one headphone. But it was better than I expected! I really liked Constance Wu in it too. She was very pleasant and had a nice storyline. I learned a lot about Singapore and Asian culture too.
Best Director
Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"
Pawel Pawlikowski, "Cold War"
Yorgos Lanthimos, "The Favourite"
Alfonso Cuarón, "Roma"
Adam McKay, "Vice"
THE SKINNY: Raise your hand if you have ever heard of Pawel Pawlikowski. Okay I didn’t think so. I haven’t either and I have nothing to say about him. Let’s move along. Yorgos Lanthimos was nominated for Best Original Screenplay a few years back and this time he took someone else’s work and got a Best Director nomination out of it. Good for him, but he doesn’t stand much of a chance in this category. Same for Adam McKay nabbing his second Best Director nomination for Vice. He’s made it very clear he will not be directing any mainstream comedies again. That leaves the two favorites here.
Personally, I didn’t like Roma that much. But I understand why people love it. It’s essentially Cuarón’s life story told on screen in an aesthetic that filmmakers adore. He’s one of the greatest directors alive, a previous Best Director winner and Roma will probably go down as a masterpiece of Hispanic storytelling. On the other hand, there’s Spike Lee. A lot of people think he should have won an Oscar for his 1989 film Do The Right Thing. He’s made a lot of culturally important and great movies over his long career. BlacKkKlansman is a pretty good movie and matches his signature themes. I’m not sure if it’s his best movie, but there’s a groundswell of people who think he deserves his first real Academy Award after five nominations and no wins. Will his fellow directors choose him over what many consider to be Alfonso Cuarón’s magnum opus? I’m guessing not.
WHO WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuarón
WHO SHOULD WIN: Spike Lee
TOM’S ALTERNATE CHOICE: John Krasinski, A Quiet Place. In case you can’t tell, I really liked A Quiet Place. It’s a great concept for a horror film. Think about how crucial sound and music cues are in scary movies. From The Jaws theme, The Exorcist, to countless other classics, sound makes a huge difference on setting up scares and building tension. John Krasinski flips the concept on its head to make one of the most captivating theater experiences in recent years. It’s quite a challenge for people to focus solely on one thing for 90 minutes without looking at their phones, but he pulled it off here.
Best Picture
"Black Panther"
"BlacKkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"The Favourite"
"Green Book"
"Roma"
"A Star Is Born"
"Vice"
THE SKINNY: Now for the big finale. This is one of the most open Best Picture categories I can recall. It’s also one fraught with external controversy. You can cross off Vice, BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite. Bohemian Rhapsody, one of the most inexplicable choices in Oscars history, is close to a cross off but it’s win for Best Drama at the Golden Globes suggests it has a longshot chance at an upset. That’s where the controversy begins. The director of that movie, Bryan Singer, is a piece of shit who was fired with three weeks left in production. It’s safe to say he won’t be there in any capacity and I find it hard to believe they’ll honor the movie here.
That leaves A Star is Born, Roma, Green Book and Black Panther. A Star is Born hasn’t taken many critical hits, but it seems to be losing steam with voters. Still, it’s a really good movie and classic Oscar bait material. The case for Roma is pretty clear cut. It’s filmmaker’s movie and an uplifting story. The potential obstacle for Roma is its distribution. It’s a Netflix produced movie and some people in the industry hold a grudge against the company because they’re not held to the box office standards of their competitors. That’s a petty narrative but it could be a deterrent for voters. On the other hand, anyone can watch Roma from their couch so it’s exposure is mass reaching.
Green Book was initially a crowd-pleaser at film festivals, but information reveals about the real life of Don Shirley from his family are troubling. There’s also concerns that screenwriter Nick Vallelonga told a slanted narrative about his own father. Some people can separate this from enjoying Green Book, but it’s unclear how dramatically it will swing voting. If you eliminate the outside noise, Green Book would be a clear favorite.
Finally, there’s Black Panther. It’s a historically successful film and it’s inclusion is remarkable. Black Panther turned in the third highest domestic box office number in movie history ($700 million) and even if you adjust that for inflation, it’s the 30th best performing movie EVER. It’s also the first Marvel movie to be nominated for Best Picture. There’s nothing controversial about the movie itself but given it’s been a long time since a movie this successful financially and popular to the masses was part of the Best Picture race. It surprisingly won the SAG award for Best Ensemble. Could Black Panther claw its way into contending? Can Green Book overcome real life criticism? Is it too late for A Star is Born to re-emerge? It’s a tough call. But I think it’ll ultimately end one way.
WHO WILL WIN: Roma
WHO SHOULD WIN: A Star is Born
TOM’S ALTERNATE CHOICE: Avengers: Infinity War. I’m not someone who re-watches movies often. That’s important to know when I tell you that I’ve probably watched this movie 10-15 times since I first saw it in theaters. Perhaps it’s because I have been around since the first Iron Man in 2008 (and I wrote about that movie in a past newsletter here). It’s definitely a movie you can’t fully appreciate unless you’ve seen the majority of Marvel films, but WOW it’s just a treat to watch. So many great characters, so many thrilling action sequences, a culmination of 10-years of connected stories coming together. And it’s only a part one! The final installment comes in April. I can’t wait. I’ll be remembering Infinity War for a long, long time.
For those watching the show this year, there’s some notable changes. The biggest is one there won’t be a host for the second time in Oscars history. Originally Kevin Hart was slated to host, but Hart was fired shortly after old tweets surfaced where he used homophobic language and he refused to apologize for it. Not sure how that will play out but we’ll see how it affects the show. They are also trying to shorten the length of the ceremony by not televising some categories like Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Live Action Short and Best Makeup and Hairstyling. Considering that cinematography and editing are two major components of movie making, I don’t get that choice. But I’m sure they’ll find a way to make it over three hours long anyways.
Last summer, the Academy announced that they’d be adding a category called “Best Popular Film”. The internet threw an outrage party right away and they scrapped the idea. But in theory, this was a very blatant attempt to earn some new viewers by showcasing movies that were more traditional mainstream hits. It’s interesting in this context that Black Panther still got a Best Picture nomination anyway. Same with Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born, two movies who took in top-10 box office numbers. Black Panther was the highest grossing U.S. film of 2018. Incredibles 2 was third and it’s in the Best Animated Feature category. Will the inclusion of some of the year’s most popular films lead to more viewers? Who knows.
I don’t know if there’s ever been a more overwhelming favorite in Best Original Song than “Shallow”. It was a huge commercial hit and central to the movie it comes from. A Star is Born might walk away empty handed in everything else, but this one is a slam dunk.
My biggest snub for inclusion is First Man. I am a sucker for a space movie, but even considering that bias I think First Man got overlooked by the industry. It was a historical drama, headlined by an A-list lead and a recent Academy winning director. And yet it still didn’t resonate with people as much as it appeared to. This year is the 50th anniversary of the moon landing. Go see First Man.
Last week, I had a dream that I was talking to Morgan Freeman. He raved about loving college basketball and how excited he was for March Madness every year. It was like he was working for ESPN analyzing the game. Later, I asked him what he thought about his co-star from The Bucket List, Jack Nicholson. Turns out Dream Morgan hated his guts and couldn’t stand working with him as an actor. Then I said “come on Morgan we’re going to be late.” All of the sudden we were wearing togas and getting on a school bus with a bunch of other toga-wearing people. I think we were headed to a party. The next morning I woke up and googled “Morgan Freeman college basketball” and I found one story about how he sat courtside at an Ole Miss basketball game and jokingly pulled at the shorts of an opposing team’s player. He didn’t even go to college! How weird is all of that?
It didn’t take long for the Netflix effect to strike yet again. This time it was their fresh-off the presses documentary movie called Abducted in Plain Sight. A few friends told me this was a must-see so I caved and watched it. HOLY SHIT! If that’s the type of reaction you like from your true crime viewing, you’d be hard pressed to find one more fitting than Abducted in Plain Sight. Sure enough, this was produced in 2017 (and just now being released on Netflix) and it’s already an Internet phenomenon. But the hype is justified. I am in utter shock and disbelief at how stupid the Brobergs from Pocatello, Idaho were.